Russia occupies an unusual position on the world stage. Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it has the capacity to destabilize the international order, most recently with its brutal invasion of Ukraine. But for all its ability to upend power dynamics in places like the Middle East and now Europe, Moscow has so far not demonstrated the capacity to fill the vacuums it exploits—or creates. That is most visibly on display in Ukraine, where the Russian military has proven operationally incompetent at anything but imposing punishing costs on the country’s civilian population, including alleged war crimes.
But while Russia has now proven that it lacks the military strength to challenge U.S. supremacy in Europe, let alone globally, no one—particularly not the NATO alliance—is ignoring its nuclear capabilities, as evidenced by the alliance’s refusal to intervene directly in the war in Ukraine. Moscow also uses arms sales and military engagements to build ties to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and especially the Middle East. And until Europe dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian energy supplies, its massive exports of fossil fuels to Europe offered Moscow additional leverage.
Even as Moscow maintains an outsized influence on the global stage, Putin has had some setbacks on the home front. Though he has dominated the Russian political scene for more than two decades, his popularity had waned amid a slowing economy even before the war in Ukraine, particularly following a deeply unpopular pension reform effort in 2018. That didn’t stop him from engineering a way to hold onto power after his current presidential term ends in 2024, despite a constitutional term limit. The recent short-lived rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group—a private military company that has been a useful asset for the Kremlin in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine—raised questions about the stability of Putin’s regime and demonstrated how the warring factions within it could lead to chaos once Putin eventually leaves office. But the aftermath of the mutiny, including Prigozhin’s untimely death in an airplane accident, has demonstrated that Putin’s grip on power remains solid.
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U.S. President Joe Biden took office eager to demonstrate a tougher line on Russia than that of his predecessor, Donald Trump, announcing sanctions in response to Russia’s cyber behavior in the early months of his administration. But Biden also renewed the New START bilateral nuclear arms control treaty, and his decision to hold a summit with Putin in June 2021 was seen as a further signal of his willingness to work constructively with Russia, particularly on issues like cyber crime. Since then, however, Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has made it clear that Putin sees no benefits in putting relations on a solid and stable footing. The sanctions the U.S. and the European Union imposed in response have now added to Putin’s domestic challenges.
WPR has covered Russia’s role in global politics in detail and continues to examine key questions about future developments. Will Russia’s economy survive the war in Ukraine? What impact will the war have on Russia’s strategic partnership with China? And will Putin be able to maintain his grip on power should his military adventurism in Ukraine backfire? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage of Russia.
Our Most Recent Coverage:
Russia and China Don’t See Eye to Eye in the Middle East and Africa
The effusive rhetoric on display in recent high-level meetings between Russian and Chinese officials masks a significant vulnerability in their strategic partnership: Although both sides champion the creation of a multipolar world order, their actual cooperation on the ground lags far behind, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
The War in Ukraine
After months of tensions and alarm, Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 came as a shock, but not a surprise. In the weeks thereafter, the Russian attack bogged down in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, but also tactical, strategic and logistical blunders. In place of the lightning victory Moscow—and many Western military analysts—expected, the conflict has become a war of attrition, featuring brutal and indiscriminate Russian attacks on civilian population centers as well as credible accusations of war crimes. Meanwhile, the fallout from the conflict, as well as from Western sanctions on Russia, has spread globally in the form of skyrocketing food and energy costs, but also a diplomatic battle for allegiance that echoes the Cold War standoff between Washington and Moscow.
- How Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine has weakened the international security order, in The War in Ukraine Is Fraying the Global Security Order
- Why predictions about war are so often wrong, in No One Could Have Predicted Russia’s Military Failure in Ukraine
- How Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making progress on the most important front, in Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is Actually Succeeding
- Why the hopes that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion will hasten the end of the war in Ukraine are likely mistaken, in The Wagner Mutiny Will Probably Prolong the War in Ukraine
Putin and Domestic Politics
Even as his global influence has grown, Putin is increasingly occupied with batting down domestic challenges—and armed rebellions—amid signs his popularity at home may be slipping. Though Russia’s economy has begun to stabilize from the effects of the punishing sanctions imposed in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, it will continue to pay a long-term cost that could increase political pressure on Putin.
- Why the West must begin preparing for worst-case scenarios in Russia, in After Prigozhin’s Death, Russia Is Nearing a Point of No Return
- Why the U.S. and Europe should have seen the Wagner mutiny coming, in Prigozhin’s Mutiny Shouldn’t Have Caught the West Napping
- What the Wagner Mutiny tells us about the future of Russia after Putin, in The Wagner Mutiny Was a Preview of Russia’s Post-Putin Civil War
- What authoritarian regimes in Egypt, Pakistan and Yemen can tell us about Putin, in Don’t Look to Russian History to Understand Putin
Foreign Policy and Global Strategy
Russia is no longer a great power, but it has found creative ways to punch above its weight in global affairs. Under Putin’s leadership, it has overcome obstacles and reasserted its influence around the world. But despite his reputation for strategic brilliance, Putin’s approach is more opportunistic and ad hoc than farsighted. Whether he can convert any of his prior gains into a sustainable and coherent approach to foreign policy, especially in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, remains uncertain.
- Why Russia’s diplomatic engagement with Southeast Asia hasn’t paid off, in Russia’s Influence in Southeast Asia Is Fading
- How deteriorating ties with Armenia reflect Russia’s diminished regional influence, in Tensions With Armenia Highlight Russia’s Waning Role in the Caucasus
- How the war in Ukraine is driving Moscow and Tehran to deepen their ties, in Iran and Russia’s ‘Partnership of Convenience’ Expands to Ukraine
- How the war in Ukraine has left the Wagner Group overextended in West Africa, in Burkina Faso Won’t Be the Wagner Group’s Next ‘Domino’ in Africa
Russia-China Relations
Moscow has taken steps to shore up its political and military links with Beijing, but with the U.S. and European sanctions against Russia now in place, it is the economic ties between the two countries that are most important. While China continues to support Russia rhetorically over the war in Ukraine, the value of the partnership has become increasingly imbalanced—in Beijing’s favor.
- What Xi’s recent visit to Moscow revealed about the Russia-China partnership, in Xi’s Moscow Visit Was More Than a Symbolic Victory for Putin
- What’s driving China’s proposed peace plan for the war in Ukraine, in Xi’s Visit to Russia Was About China’s Interests, not Ukraine
- Why the war in Ukraine is putting China in a bind, in For Xi and China, Putin’s War Is a Geopolitical Minefield
- How the war in Ukraine has allowed China to outpace Russia in Central Asia, in China Is Taking Advantage of Russia’s Weakness in Central Asia
Russia-U.S. Relations
During the four years of Trump’s presidency, relations with the Kremlin often become ensnared in Washington’s larger partisan divide. Biden promised a return to a more conventional approach to U.S.-Russia relations, seeking to confront Putin without undermining areas of potential and even necessary cooperation. But the invasion of Ukraine has put relations on a wartime footing, with little hope of improvement anytime soon.
- Why U.S.-Russia relations are likely to remain strained regardless of who succeeds Putin, in A ‘New’ Gorbachev Won’t Rescue U.S.-Russia Relations After Putin
- How the war in Ukraine upended U.S.-Russia relations, in The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Has Removed All Doubt. We’re in a New Cold War
- Why the U.S. and its partners will need a new approach if they hope to force Putin to change course, in To Change Putin’s Behavior, the West Needs a New Strategy
- Why domestic political currents are undermining Washington’s foreign policy goals, in When It Comes to Strategic Rivalries, History Doesn’t Take Sides
Energy
Already a major player in oil markets, Russia’s growing share of the natural gas market was giving it more influence. But in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, Putin’s failure to diversify the economy could come back to haunt him. Now Western sanctions and the transition to renewable energies could further undermine the country’s energy sector.
- Why the EU’s relations with Russia won’t improve anytime soon, in EU Sanctions on Russia Are Here to Stay
- What the EU’s ban on Russian oil imports means for Russia’s relations with Europe, in The EU Finally Approves a Ban on Russian Oil
- Why Russian oil imports made such a tempting target for EU sanctions, in The EU Has Lots of Options for Targeting Russian Oil. It Should Use Them
- Why the war in Ukraine could be a turning point for Russia’s energy ambitions, in Russia May Never Recover Its Status as an Energy Giant
Military Modernization
Russia had been using its military, and outfits like Wagner, to expand its global influence and deepen geopolitical ties. Its expensive military modernization program had also kept the United States and its NATO allies on alert. But the Russian military’s failures in Ukraine make a reevaluation urgently necessary.
- How a recent strategy document illuminates Moscow’s approach to nuclear deterrence, in Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine: Don’t Mess With Us—But Let’s Talk
- What the demise of a key nuclear treaty means for the future of arms control, in The Myths and Realities of European Security in a Post-INF World
- Why NATO countries ignore Russia’s area-denial capabilities at their peril, in NATO Is Focusing on the Wrong Russian Threat in Eastern Europe
- What Russia is up to in Africa, in As the U.S. Disengages, Russia Ramps Up Aid and Arms Sales to Sub-Saharan Africa
Editor’s note: This article was originally published in May 2019 and is regularly updated.