The Russians Just Destroyed Their First Ukrainian Leopard 2 Tank

The Russians have bagged their first Leopard.

A Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian vehicle column during a daytime assault on or around the town of Novopokrovka—35 miles southeast of Zaporizhzhia city in southern Ukraine—apparently knocked out at least one Leopard 2 tank on Wednesday.

A Russian drone orbited overheard as the shells rained down, its crew presumably helping to direct the strike and assess the resulting damage. The Russians posted the drone’s video on social media, finally achieving what Russian propagandists earlier had tried and failed to do: posit the destruction of a Ukrainian Leopard 2.

The Leopard 2 and other armored vehicles were traveling in an uncomfortably tight column along an unpaved road outside Novopokrovka or nearby Mala Tokmachka—both occupied by Russian troops—when the artillery struck.

It’s unclear which brigade the Ukrainian forces belonged to. The only front-line brigades analysts have confirmed as present along the Novopokrovka sector—the 65th Mechanized Brigade and the 46th Air Mobile Brigade—are not confirmed as operators of Ukraine’s German-made Leopard 2s.

There are just three Ukrainian brigades we can say with some confidence possess Leopard 2s: the newly-formed 33rd Mechanized Brigade and the veteran 1st and 4th Tank Brigades.

The 4th Tank Brigade recently was spotted in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, nearly a hundred miles from the Zaporizhzhia front. The 33rd Mechanized Brigade last was observed training around Lviv in western Ukraine. The 1st Tank Brigade meanwhile was a few miles to the east of Novopokrovka.

The 4th Tank Brigade is busy. That implies the vehicle column the Russians bombarded on Wednesday was from the 1st Tank Brigade or 33rd Mechanized Brigade. It’s possible one or both brigades recently joined Ukraine’s four-day-old counteroffensive.

We don’t know the outcome of the Ukrainian assault on Novopokrovka or Mala Tokmachka. The 1st Tank Brigade and 33rd Mechanized Brigade between them have dozens of Leopard 2s plus scores of other armored vehicles. Knocking out one Leopard 2—or even several Leopard 2s—isn’t decisive.

Many of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades have yet to join the attack. The 47th Assault Brigade with its American-made M-2 infantry fighting vehicles reportedly is fighting along the southern front. But the 82nd Air Assault Brigade with its ex-British Challenger 2 tanks and ex-American Stryker IFVs has yet to appear.

Even if the Russians destroy all 85 of the Leopard 2s Ukraine’s allies currently have pledged to the war effort, there are more tanks on the way—including 31 M-1s from the United States and more than 130 Leopard 1s from a Danish-Dutch-German consortium.

Expect more Ukrainian equipment losses—in tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery—as the counteroffensive develops. Expect the human toll to mount, as well. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month predicted “a large number of [Ukrainian] soldiers will die” as Kyiv’s forces fight to liberate their country from years of Russian occupation.